Goldman Trump says this revolution and this recovery isn’t happening.
“Trump will nominate another Goldman Sachs banker, James Donovan, for a key financial post as deputy Treasury secretary … . Donovan joins his former peers, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and chief Economic advisor, Gary Cohn, who are also former Goldman executives who occupy senior economic posts within the administration.” Trump Nominates Another Goldman Banker For Key Treasury Position, Tyler Durden, 2/15/17
Why do I say that the presence of Goldman Trump says that this revolution and recovery are not happening (besides his pin)? Check the headlines below. They tell a story, starting with bonds:
The first article quotes Albert Edwards:
“… I believe the US Fed has created another massive credit bubble that will, when it bursts, lay the global economy very low indeed. Combine this with the problems of a Chinese economy dependent on increasingly ineffective injections of credit to produce increasingly pedestrian GDP growth and you have a right global mess. The 2007/8 Global Financial Crisis will look like a soft-landing … All that is needed now is for the Fed to sprinkle life-giving rate hikes onto these, as yet dormant, seeds of destruction. Accelerated Fed rate hikes will cause tremors in the Treasury bond markets, forcing rates up, most especially in the 2 year – just like 1994. But as yet another central bank-inspired global recession unfolds, I believe US 10y bond yields will ultimately converge with Japanese and European yields well below zero – in other words, buy 10y bonds on weakness!” It’s 1994 Again: Why Albert Edwards Expects An Imminent “Bond Market Bloodbath”, Tyler Durden, 3/11/17
Apparently once bond-buying gets started, it will be impossible to stop – sucking all the money out of risk assets everywhere. But meanwhile, the bag-holders are putting their money in:
As Retail Investors Flood Into Stocks, Professionals Are Dumping Speculative Longs, Tyler Durden, 3/11/17
So those in the know are getting out. Meanwhile the banks have stopped lending. If money is credit (and it is) this will quickly dry up the sponge.
“Who Hit The Brakes?” – Bank Loan Creation Suddenly Tumbles To Five Year Low, Tyler Durden, 3/12/17
The government statisticians have been lying to us about unemployment, wages, and inflation:
What Wage Growth? Real Earnings Tumble For Second Straight Month, Tyler Durden, 3/15/17
Stagflation Strikes As US Consumer Prices Surge At Fastest Pace In 5 Years, Tyler Durden, 3/15/17
The effects are already noticable:
Manhattan Luxury Housing In Freefall: J.Crew CEO Slashes Tribeca Loft Price By Over 40%, Tyler Durden, 3/11/17
Eric Peters: “If China And The World Bank Are Right, We’re Headed For A Depression” , Tyler Durden, 3/12/17
“Something Snapped”: US Department Store Sales Crash Most On Record, Tyler Durden, 3/14/17
Retail Sales Decelerate, Rise 0.1% As Expected; Control Group Disappoints, Tyler Durden, 3/15/17
So beware the ides of Goldman Trump!