Projected infection/death rates:
H1N1 Swine/Mexican Update and Projections
Source: WHO – [link to www.who.int] (WHO was the source of the root data only. Everything is built on this data.)
Mortality Rate
(Confirmed Data)
5/1/09 – 331 Cases; 10 Deaths = data estimated 3.02% mortality rate
4/30/09 – 257 Cases; 8 Deaths = data estimated 3.11% mortality rate
4/29/09 – 148 Cases; 8 Deaths = data estimated 5.4% mortality rate
4/28/09 – 105 Cases; 7 Deaths = data estimated 6.6% mortality rate
4/27/09 – 73 Cases; 7 Deaths = data estimated 9.6% mortality rate
Average 5.6%
Summary: As data is collected an confirmed, mortality rate is decreasing. Rate of decrease is slowing. Projections based on current data suggest mortality rate should level at 2.75% to 2.9% with a high degree of confidence. Data should move toward this expectation as collected data continues be confirmed.
Infection Growth Rate
4/28/09 – 1.43%
4/29/09 – 1.41%
4/30/09 – 1.73%
5/01/09 – 1.29%
Average Infection Growth Rate – 1.46%
Southern hemisphere at greater risk moving into fall/winter with higher infection rate possible
Northern hemisphere at lesser risk moving into spring summer with lesser infection rate possible.
However, given the virus manifested in spring/summer conditions and is exhibiting a infection growth rate of 1.46% in these conditions, 1.46% may be the low with the expectations of a much higher rate in fall/winter for both hemispheres.
Summary: Immunity to H1N1 in the general population in non-existant. Exposure is likely to yield infection thereby producing the demonstrated 1.46% infection growth rate.
Infection will continue until population is dead or immune. Growth will continue to increase exponentially in populations of little to no immunity. All human population is at risk.
Comparision to Common Flu
Up to 500,000 deaths are attributed to common flu worldwide. This usually impacts the weak, children, elderly, already unhealthy/malnourished.
H1N1 Swine/Mexican flu is more likely to cause death in the healthy, igniting a cytokine storm/overun in those that have a well functioning immune system as the cause of death. This is a critical difference when compared to the common flu and is actually more similar to the 1918 pandemic.
On average there are tens of millions of cases of flu that occur globally, much of which is unreported. Because the global population has built up immunities in respect to many strains of the common flu the growth rate is typically much less than what the H1N1 Swine/Mexican virus has demonstrated. This is why the H1N1 Swine/Mexican virus has the ability to spread so quickly, as there are many more potential infectees. The mortality rates also differ significantly, the common flu is less than .5%, where as the H1N1 Swine/Mexican flu appears to be between 2.75% and 3%.
Should this pandemic realize its full potential, then healthcare is likely to max out in days or weeks. This would amplify the normal mortality rate to perhaps 5%.
Now that the above has been reviewed, which is supported by current and historical confirmed data, we can build mathematical expectations.
5/1/09
# of infected to date =331
# of deaths assuming .05% mortality rate = 2
# of deaths assuming 1% mortality rate = 3
# of deaths assuming 2% mortality rate = 7
# of deaths assuming 3% mortality rate = 10
# of deaths assuming 5% mortality rate = 17
Notice in the above that a 3% mortality rate places us in the neighborhood of the amount of deaths we have witnessed globally to date.
5/8/09
# of infected to date =4,681
# of deaths assuming .05% mortality rate = 23
# of deaths assuming 1% mortality rate = 47
# of deaths assuming 2% mortality rate = 94
# of deaths assuming 3% mortality rate = 140
# of deaths assuming 5% mortality rate = 342
5/15/09
# of infected to date = 66,186
# of deaths assuming .05% mortality rate = 331
# of deaths assuming 1% mortality rate = 662
# of deaths assuming 2% mortality rate = 1,324
# of deaths assuming 3% mortality rate = 1,986
# of deaths assuming 5% mortality rate = 4,832
5/22/09
# of infected to date = 935,918
# of deaths assuming .05% mortality rate = 4,680
# of deaths assuming 1% mortality rate = 9,359
# of deaths assuming 2% mortality rate = 18,718
# of deaths assuming 3% mortality rate = 28,078
# of deaths assuming 5% mortality rate = 46,796
At this stage, healthcare should be breaking down, even in wealthy countries. A 5% mortality after this point may not be unrealistic.
5/29/09
# of infected to date = 13,234,513
# of deaths assuming .05% mortality rate = 66,173
# of deaths assuming 1% mortality rate = 132,345
# of deaths assuming 2% mortality rate = 264,690
# of deaths assuming 3% mortality rate = 397,035
# of deaths assuming 5% mortality rate = 661,726
6/13/09
# of infected to date = 3,863,676,821
# of deaths assuming .05% mortality rate = 19,318,384
# of deaths assuming 1% mortality rate = 38,636,768
# of deaths assuming 2% mortality rate = 77,273,536
# of deaths assuming 3% mortality rate = 115,910,305
# of deaths assuming 5% mortality rate = 193,183,841
At this point, one half of the world’s population has been exposed and infected. If this virus yielded the same mortality rate as the common flu, we would likely expect over 19 million deaths worldwide. If the current mortality rate continues with the current growth rate, then by June 13 we could witness 115 million deaths just 6 days later. If healthcare collapse, panic, and social unrest occur, then 193 million is the catastrophic reality.
At this point the growth rate would like slow down as more of the population would be immune and therefore unable to be a viral load carrier, however, deaths would still occur after this point. Of course, by now the fragile global economy will have already collapsed.
The critical difference between the Swine/Mexican flu and the common flu is in two critical characteristics, growth rate and mortality rate. The rest is just math based on evidence to date. If the confirmed cases do not change to improve the numbers, then examine the above again.
Icliks Incoming 