Emerging Market Banking Crises Are Next
James Gruber
3/3/14
… Asia Confidential thinks the vast majority of commentary has missed the underlying reasons for emerging market currency volatility, with the yuan being the latest example. What we’re really witnessing is a major rebalancing of global economic trade. Prior to 2008, the US had a massive consumption bubble, financed by its current account deficit which exported U.S. dollars and fueled global trade. Since the crisis, US consumption has slowed but QE has stepped in to provide the U.S. dollar liquidity needed for world trade. With the tapering of QE, that dollar liquidity is diminishing. And emerging market currencies such as the yuan are having to adjust to reflect real US demand. With or without PBOC intervention, that was bound to happen.
The concern for emerging markets is that this isn’t just a currency issue. The carry trades and subsequent inflows of capital have created substantial credit and real estate bubbles in many of these markets. The unwinding of these bubbles is likely to lead to banking crises in several countries, including China and China proxies such as Hong Kong, Australia and perhaps Singapore.
The hit to global economic activity will hurt inflated stock markets. As well as commodities, particularly the likes of iron ore and copper which have been widely used as collateral to finance trade/purchases in China. The winners out of all this are expected to include the US dollar, given less dollar liquidity means reduced supply vis-a-vis demand. And US Treasuries too due to the deflationary consequences of the economic re-balancing. …
Icliks Incoming 